FIELD NOTE 01

How DeFi Signal works

The screen looks for protocols whose operating fundamentals are improving faster than their token price, then adds valuation, data-quality and risk context. It narrows a research universe; it does not predict returns.

Confirmed momentum

Revenue growth % − token-price change %

The default screen looks for improving fundamentals before token price catches up. It requires at least $100K of starting weekly revenue, a signal gap of +20 points or more, and a prior-week token move no greater than +10%.

Sustained: revenue must improve in two consecutive weekly comparisons
Not already chased: the token can be flat or down, but cannot have risen more than 10% in the latest week
Positive fundamentals: falling revenue never receives a confirmed label
Standard screen: advanced filters still allow broader metric and window exploration

Equal-length comparisons

Week over Week compares the latest complete seven-day total with the previous seven days. Confirmed momentum also compares that previous week with the seven days before it, preventing a single isolated jump from qualifying. Month over Month compares complete 30-day periods. TVL compares point-in-time balances.

A minimum starting value defaults to $100K so tiny denominators do not dominate the rankings.

Valuation

Annualized revenue ÷ circulating market cap

When at least 60 daily observations are available, annualized revenue uses the average of up to 90 days. Otherwise, it falls back to the latest 30-day run rate. Cheap means a revenue yield of 15% or more, Average means 4–15%, and Expensive means below 4%.

Because the denominator uses circulating market cap, a risk flag appears when FDV is at least 2× market cap. The label is a screening ratio, not an intrinsic-value estimate.

Risk and data quality

Flags use observable proxies: market-cap size, revenue concentration, reported tokenholder revenue and price-source confidence. Unlock schedules and incentive dependence are marked unverified unless the source reports them reliably.

“Unverified” means the dashboard does not know, not that the risk is absent.

FORWARD LEDGER

Track record

The Track record tab only includes signals captured during an actual live dashboard refresh. New entries use the Confirmed momentum rules: two improving revenue weeks, a +20-point gap, a token move no greater than +10%, and at least $100K of starting weekly revenue. Each event stores its timestamp, entry token price, BTC price, revenue growth and signal gap. The same token cannot create another event within 30 days. Earlier stored entries remain part of the honest historical ledger.

SOURCES

Data provenance

DeFiLlama: protocol TVL, category, fees, revenue, DEX and derivatives volume, tokenholder revenue and adapter methodology.

DeFiLlama Coins: token prices, BTC benchmark prices and historical price points.

Stored by DeFi Signal: qualifying live signal events and their entry prices.

Derived by DeFi Signal: equal-window growth, signal gap, revenue yield, risk proxies, peer groups and benchmark-relative performance.

Important limits

TVL can move because of asset prices, deposits, withdrawals, yield or reporting changes.
Fees are user payments; revenue is the portion retained by the protocol or stakeholders.
Reported revenue does not guarantee tokenholder value capture.
Circulating market cap can understate dilution; compare it with FDV and verify unlock schedules.
Even a 90-day revenue average can be distorted by changing incentives, seasonality or adapter changes.
Adapters and protocol definitions can change, creating breaks in historical comparability.